Market trends
High-End Real Estate is Splintering
Ultrawealthy buy, entry-level hesistates
A divide has emerged in the U.S. luxury housing sector—and it’s growing. The market is bifurcating, real-estate agents across the country confirm, with entry-level luxury homes undergoing mild price stabilization while the ultraluxury segment is seeing a significant increase in demand, bolstering or pushing up prices. Traditional luxury and resort markets, including Beverly Hills and Malibu, the Hamptons, and ski destinations such as Aspen, Park City, and Vail, are seeing strong demand for homes at the top 5% of the market—often priced north of US$20 million—while homes at the lower end of the luxury market, with prices ranging from US$2.5 million to US$10 million, are spending more days on the market amid increased inventory. The result is a growing divide between the two ends of the luxury spectrum, with the top 5% of properties appreciating at a rate that far outstrips the rest of the U.S. housing market.
According to NAR, between 2015 and 2025, the market share of houses sold for over US$1 million across the United States rose from 1.61% to 8.08% (+402%), while the share of houses sold for over US$5 million rose from 0.03% to 0.25% (+733%). “The luxury market is the best example of the K-shaped housing market. [That] sector is outperforming others [and] is less influenced by affordability concerns or by the mortgage market,” says Jessica Lautz, Deputy Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors.
“[Growth] is stronger among homes over US$5 million in comparison to those [priced below that.]” she adds. “However, the share of homes priced over US$1 million now is more than 8% of all homes sold in 2025.” Taking the entire housing market into account, “the annual increase in home sales is consistently higher at the US$1 million-plus range,” she added. Sales of homes priced above US$1 million (the highest bracket the NAR data record), increased 18% annually from June 2026, significantly outstripping homes priced below US$1 million. Homes priced over US$1 million also spent the fewest days on the market in June 2026, compared with those below that threshold.
Amid economic uncertainty caused by persistent inflation, the war with Iran, and the possibility of interest rate increases, buyers on the lower end of the luxury market are exercising caution, but for UHNW buyers, ultra-luxury real estate is an attractive hedge against potential instability. “Some home buyers in the luxury market are moving money from financial assets into real estate to diversify investments,” Lautz says, adding that “the luxury sector is dominated by repeat buyers who have housing equity.” Recent stock market gains have boosted wealth for many UHNW buyers. “People have a lot of spending power right now,” says Dana Trotter, Managing Partner of The Agency Hamptons. “There’s a lot of cash around.”
• 2026 Global Survey
OF AGENTS SAY local sale prices are up slightly compared with last year.
Up slightly
Up significantly
Down slightly
Down significantly
No change
In the Los Angeles’ most sought-after neighborhoods, including Beverly Hills, Bel Air, Brentwood, and Malibu, “we’re seeing more sales now between US$40 million and US$100 million-plus than we ever have,” says Paul Lester, Partner and Co-Founder of The Agency Beverly Hills. Sales over US$25 million have increased exponentially in the past five years in the LA area, he says. In 2021, “we had 29 sales that were over US$25 million and each year it’s gone up by 10 or so more homes that are traded. This year we already have 65 that have gone over US$25 million, and we’re not done.” Demand for entry- and mid-level luxury properties remains stable, but the divide between entry-level and ultra-high-end luxury properties is growing. “The gap between the US$20 million buyer and these high-net-worth über-buyers spending US$50 million and above is larger than ever,” he says.
UHNW buyers purchasing properties priced in the top 5% of the market are typically all-cash buyers unaffected by interest rates, real-estate agents say, while luxury buyers tend to be more cautious, even if they are paying cash. In Park City, which has a robust two-tier second-home market, cash buyers make up 65% to 70% of those in the entry-level luxury sector, with homes priced between US$5 million and US$10 million, says Charlie Taylor, Managing Partner at The Agency Park City. “US$10 million and up is really just a cash market, and those people are not affected by interest rates. They’re just living their lives, doing what they want.” This ultraluxury tier is “maybe the strongest segment of the market,” he adds. “The product at that level is very high quality [with limited] inventory.”
The highest-end real estate is particularly attractive from an investment perspective. Ultraluxury properties “may not appreciate as fast as the lower-price market, but in a downturn they’ll tend to hold value better,” Taylor says. In Aspen, transactions are down between 30% and 40% year over year, with some price reductions in the entry-level luxury bracket of US$5 million to US$12 million, says Chris Flynn, Managing Partner of The Agency Aspen. But at the top end of the market prices remain stable. “We’re still seeing the record sales at that US$30-plus million,” he says. If those buyers see something special, “they’ll jump on it,” he says. Ultra-high-net-worth buyers are looking for more than just a financial hedge, however. “I think it’s twofold: It’s a very safe investment and then on top of that people get this incredible use and enjoyment out of their asset,” Trotter says. These buyers tend to take a long-term view. They’re “a lot less constrained by financing and much more focused on scarcity and quality of life and long-term value,” says Adi Slifer, Managing Partner of The Agency Vail, adding that most are looking for a legacy asset, “a place where their family can come back for generations.”
The properties priced in the top 5% of the market command the best locations, views, luxury amenities, and lifestyle factors, such as ski-in, ski-out access in mountain settings and beachfront access in coastal resorts. The scarcity of those means that demand continues to keep up with or outstrip supply. “What we’re really seeing in Vail is scarcity,” Slifer says. “We can’t manufacture more ski-in, ski-out locations.” Likewise, in the Hamptons, shortage of inventory at the top of the market “is driving prices up,” Trotter says. “We’ve never seen so much activity in the very high end out here.” Properties north of US$20 million are coming on and selling quickly. These special turnkey properties, homes that are truly rare, irreplaceable—waterfront, space, privacy, quality—are just [being sold] at astronomical numbers.”
In the Los Angeles’ most sought-after neighborhoods, including Beverly Hills, Bel Air, Brentwood, and Malibu, “we’re seeing more sales now between US$40 million and US$100 million-plus than we ever have,” says Paul Lester, Partner and Co-Founder of The Agency Beverly Hills. Sales over US$25 million have increased exponentially in the past five years in the LA area, he says. In 2021, “we had 29 sales that were over US$25 million and each year it’s gone up by 10 or so more homes that are traded. This year we already have 65 that have gone over US$25 million, and we’re not done.” Demand for entry- and mid-level luxury properties remains stable, but the divide between entry-level and ultra-high-end luxury properties is growing. “The gap between the US$20 million buyer and these high-net-worth über-buyers spending US$50 million and above is larger than ever,” he says.
UHNW buyers purchasing properties priced in the top 5% of the market are typically all-cash buyers unaffected by interest rates, real-estate agents say, while luxury buyers tend to be more cautious, even if they are paying cash. In Park City, which has a robust two-tier second-home market, cash buyers make up 65% to 70% of those in the entry-level luxury sector, with homes priced between US$5 million and US$10 million, says Charlie Taylor, Managing Partner at The Agency Park City. “US$10 million and up is really just a cash market, and those people are not affected by interest rates. They’re just living their lives, doing what they want.” This ultraluxury tier is “maybe the strongest segment of the market,” he adds. “The product at that level is very high quality [with limited] inventory.”
The highest-end real estate is particularly attractive from an investment perspective. Ultraluxury properties “may not appreciate as fast as the lower-price market, but in a downturn they’ll tend to hold value better,” Taylor says. In Aspen, transactions are down between 30% and 40% year over year, with some price reductions in the entry-level luxury bracket of US$5 million to US$12 million, says Chris Flynn, Managing Partner of The Agency Aspen. But at the top end of the market prices remain stable. “We’re still seeing the record sales at that US$30-plus million,” he says. If those buyers see something special, “they’ll jump on it,” he says. Ultra-high-net-worth buyers are looking for more than just a financial hedge, however. “I think it’s twofold: It’s a very safe investment and then on top of that people get this incredible use and enjoyment out of their asset,” Trotter says. These buyers tend to take a long-term view. They’re “a lot less constrained by financing and much more focused on scarcity and quality of life and long-term value,” says Adi Slifer, Managing Partner of The Agency Vail, adding that most are looking for a legacy asset, “a place where their family can come back for generations.”
The properties priced in the top 5% of the market command the best locations, views, luxury amenities, and lifestyle factors, such as ski-in, ski-out access in mountain settings and beachfront access in coastal resorts. The scarcity of those means that demand continues to keep up with or outstrip supply. “What we’re really seeing in Vail is scarcity,” Slifer says. “We can’t manufacture more ski-in, ski-out locations.” Likewise, in the Hamptons, shortage of inventory at the top of the market “is driving prices up,” Trotter says. “We’ve never seen so much activity in the very high end out here.” Properties north of US$20 million are coming on and selling quickly. These special turnkey properties, homes that are truly rare, irreplaceable—waterfront, space, privacy, quality—are just [being sold] at astronomical numbers.”
“People have a lot of spending power right now. There's a lot of cash around.”
Dana trotter
managing partner, The Agency hamptons
• 2026 Global Survey
OF AGENTS SAY over 75% of their sales are all-cash.
+75%
50-75%
25-50%
-25%
Despite this, buyers are not indiscriminate. “The high-end demand is strongest for properties that offer something scarce, like land, water, ocean proximity, new construction, privacy, village access, or exceptional design,” she says. But “buyers at every level are more selective than they were a few years ago. If a property is overpriced or has compromises, it can sit on the market.” Turnkey is king. “People spending US$30 million or US$40 million don’t want to have to take on a big project,” she says. “They don’t have the bandwidth or the time.”
At the other end of the scale, entry-level luxury buyers are “much more cautious and more value-oriented,” Trotter says, adding that although “99% of our deals are not contingent on any sort of mortgage,” entry-level buyers are “asking for carrying costs and taxes and insurance and what they might have to do renovation-wise. I wouldn’t say the lower end is weak, but it’s definitely more discerning.” Inventory levels of entry-level luxury properties are also greater than for ultra-high-end properties in most markets, giving buyers more options and leverage to negotiate.
The number of entry-level luxury buyers has also dropped post-pandemic because people who took out mortgages at record-low interest rates are staying put rather than moving up the ladder, Taylor says. In the current economic climate, “their buying power just isn’t as strong.” While sales in many resort markets remain steady at this level, demand is not high enough to create price growth. “At the entry level, buyers are much more price-sensitive and are taking time to make decisions,” Slifer says. “They are deciding: Is this the time to make that luxury purchase?”
Heading into 2027, real-estate agents expect the K-shaped luxury housing market to continue. In Aspen, “the scarcity of exceptional properties will continue to support the top end, and the buyers at the lower luxury price points will just continue to be more disciplined and price-sensitive,” Flynn says, predicting that in Aspen the divide between two ends of the luxury market will persist but not widen.
In markets such as Los Angeles, Vail, and the Hamptons, where demand for ultra-luxury properties is at an all-time high, the gulf may continue to grow. “I think that the entry level will remain sensitive to interest rates and inventory and value,” Slifer says. Buyers in this bracket “have higher expectations and they have more negotiating leverage because there’s more supply.” At the top end, “the fundamental drivers [of growth] are not changing.” ■
