Market trends
AI Capital is Slowly Redefining Select Ultraluxury Markets
New millionaires and billionaires are set to wield extraordinary spending power
According to recent Goldman Sachs projections, total investment in artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to exceed US$1 trillion by the end of 2026. A portion of that will funnel to a short list of founders and start-up staff who will suddenly find themselves significantly wealthier through new IPOs, acquisitions, or new equity positions.
The realized and potential wealth is essentially unprecedented in the post-industrial era and it’s raising the stakes when it comes to where these newly minted millionaires and billionaires will want to live. “In the next couple of years, I think we’re going to have a great run,” says The Agency Marin Agent Tracy McLaughlin, who works in Marin County just north of San Francisco. “We are working with a lot of people that have pending IPOs.”
The Bay Area is the country’s first look at how new wealth rapidly scales in an already-tight real estate market. According to Realtor.com, in 2025, Bay Area luxury home buyers put down a median of 35% on their purchases, 6.6 percentage points higher than the median down payment before 2023. On a US$3 million entry-level luxury home in the area, that’s roughly US$198,000 more cash at closing, “driven by AI workers liquidating equity and putting it straight into real estate,” according to Realtor.com.
Higher down payments have eased after a mortgage-rate spike in 2023 in places such as Miami, Austin, and New York, according to Realtor.com. But they’ve stayed high in the Bay Area.
“We were already dealing with such low inventory anyway in single-family homes,” says The Agency NorCal agent Laura Pallin, who primarily covers San Francisco. “It used to be easier to get into the higher-end homes, but anyone remotely interested in selling could not have picked a better time.”
MLS data from early August shows the city is on a blistering pace. This year, there have been six sales over US$20 million, 20 over US$10 million, and 129 over US$5M compared with one, 21, and 113, respectively, across all of 2025. Pallin cites a renewed interest on top of an existing buyer pool putting upward pressure on just about any property currently on the market.
In contrast, the Seattle area is experiencing a stall, according to Jen Cameron, Managing Partner of The Agency Seattle. “The city’s top talent is on the east side of Seattle (where companies like Microsoft and Amazon have campuses), but the market feels frozen with several listings above US$10 million not moving.”
She adds that many wealthier residents are pausing transaction plans while they explore the fallout from the state’s new wealth tax passed in March that puts a 9.9% tax on taxable income above US$1 million. Buyers are concerned about how it might affect long-term living across the state.
• 2026 Global Survey
OF AGENTS SAY IT’S too early to tell WHETHER AI MONEY IS LIFTING business or client budgets.
Too Early to Tell
Yes
No
South Florida in Stage One of the Tech Boom
The rest of the country is just beginning to see a trickle of the shift that’s already underway in northern California. Rick Teed, an agent with The Agency South Florida, says that a lot of these new buyers have wealth tied up in positions until at least the end of 2026, so they can’t actively move on their new riches until next year. “What’s happening now is you have a lot of AI money circling, but they’re waiting for an exit in and around the end of December,” he notes. “The biggest players were able to cash in or borrow against positions.” He thinks that the new money coming in is an early indication of what’s to come as some flee increased taxes and regulation on wealthy residents in California and New York. That could also drive pressure in the most desirable parts of Miami and coastal communities with more competition in a competitive market.
Some are already thinking south in the Florida Keys. According to Lisa Swanson, Managing Partner of The Agency Florida Keys, more buyers are looking for the privacy of a lower-profile area while still being within boating distance to Miami. What’s more, the Marathon International Airport is being renovated to provide a more suitable option for private aviation that’s closer to the mainland and Key West and will eventually open to commercial traffic. “They’re getting tired of Miami’s traffic and congestion and are willing to pay a premium for larger, turnkey properties,” she says. She notes that the money arriving is more from a mix of industries, representing not only new wealth but legacies as well.
Beyond a few spots across the country, it’s simply too soon to tell how this new wealth will change the ultraluxury market as a whole, a view shared by most of the 3,500 agents across 180 locations surveyed for The Agency Global Survey. This unique moment arrives in tandem with the largest wealth transfer in history, with some estimates suggesting more than US$80 trillion in wealth will transfer hands over the next two decades. New AI wealth will likely accelerate some of the trends and movements that this wealth transfer has already initiated. ■
• Market Insight
Where Wealth Goes Next
Think breakfast in San Francisco, followed by an afternoon on the slopes or on the beach. This is the next big question, and The Agency is watching lifestyle markets that offer relative value, investment potential, and, crucially for time-strapped founders and executives, easy, nonstop access from the Bay Area.
Steamboat springs, colorado
Nonstop winter flights from San Francisco make it possible to leave by morning and be on the slopes by afternoon. Buyers can still find relative value compared with established luxury ski markets, while US$1 billion in investment and the arrival of The Stockman, Auberge Collection are elevating the destination. With fly fishing, hiking, biking, hunting and ranch life beyond ski season, Steamboat offers a four-season lifestyle investment.
Los Cabos, Mexico
Three hours nonstop from San Francisco puts an international home within easy reach for a long weekend. Luxury hospitality, branded residences and new development continue to elevate the market, while golf, boating, beaches and year-round sunshine extend its appeal beyond vacation season. For newly liquid buyers, Cabo offers international lifestyle and investment potential without sacrificing accessibility.
Oahu, hawaii
Nonstop flights from San Francisco make this one of the most accessible tropical escapes for Northern California buyers. Oahu combines privacy, wellness and outdoor living with Honolulu’s infrastructure, dining, culture and connectivity, offering time-strapped buyers a dramatic lifestyle shift without leaving the United States. New luxury development also offers more lock-and-leave opportunities without the upkeep of a traditional estate.
