WHERE CONDOS ARE HOT—AND NOT

The desirability of luxury condos in Vancouver varies widely from neighborhood to neighborhood, resulting in a mixed market profile this year, says Kit Matkaluk, Managing Partner of The Agency Vancouver. “Ever since Covid, downtown has been very soft,” he says, in part due to rapid development leading to an oversupply of condos, coupled with a federal ban on foreign buyers. But other areas, including North and West Vancouver, continue to attract rightsizers looking to spend in the $3 million to $5 million range on luxury condos.

Prices in West Vancouver, North Vancouver, and the city’s West Side may have come down 5% to 10% since the pandemic peak of mid-2022, “but there’s not a ton of development there,” says Hugh Cooper, Managing Partner of The Agency Vancouver. “They are popular neighborhoods and there’s only so many places, so those areas have done just fine.” But even the most desirable locations aren’t entirely immune to a slowdown, such as that seen across the greater Vancouver area this year. “From February until August would be the slowest real estate market in probably over 15 years,” Matkaluk says, adding that “when the prices come down in detached homes, then the prices have to come down in the high-end condo market, because there’s such a trickle-down effect between the two.”

A slow compilation of factors has led to a downturn in demand for condos in South Florida, long a favorite destination for second-home buyers looking for a lock-up-and-leave property in the sun. Overall, condo prices and sales fell further in Florida than anywhere else across the U.S. in May this year, Redfin data show. Howard Elfman, Managing Partner of The Agency Fort Lauderdale, Miami, and Palm Beach, attributes the cooling of the condo market to two major factors: a 2023 law prohibiting buyers from certain countries from purchasing properties near critical infrastructure, including cruise ports and airports, and the collapse of a Surfside condo tower in 2021 that led to laws requiring costly safety assessments for many existing condo buildings.

This year, demand for condos has been outstripped by a desire among high-net-worth buyers for single-family homes, he says. But while more modestly priced properties are floundering, the top end of the luxury condo market has bucked the wider downward trend. Looking at condos priced at $5 million and above, “the active inventory is up 10% and closed sales are up 19%,” he says, citing data from the Multiple Listing Service comparing the first half of 2025 with the first half of 2024. By contrast, comparing the same period for the overall condo market, closed sales are down 10%. But even at the top end of the market, while asking prices are holding steady, “I’ve seen more negotiation in the price,” he says.

Looking forward to 2026, a new trend for branded residences may help make the condo king once again. “We have more of those being built right now than we probably ever have,” Elfman says, adding that brand-name developments—such as Lamborghini, Armani, Fendi, and Dolce & Gabbana—tend to attract higher-net-worth buyers.

Overall demand is also likely to pick up if financial portfolios continue to stabilize heading into 2026, Elfman says. Questions surrounding the costs of safety assessments have also been answered with the implementation of amended housing laws in July, relieving uncertainty about resale condos, he adds.

Texas has seen one of the biggest drops in overall condo sales across the U.S. this year, but in Dallas, luxury condos are weathering the storm. While sales in the overall condo market dropped “a hefty 32.29% year over year in Dallas-Fort Worth as of May 2025, the luxury segment is holding strong with more resilience,” says Megan Williamson, Managing Partner of The Agency Dallas. Million-dollar-plus homes, including luxury condos, saw a 14% increase year over year in the first half of 2025. Inventory rose by 13.2% in the same period and average days on market increased, but prices are holding firm, with the median price climbing, she says. “The ultra-wealthy are still splashing cash on penthouses and posh pads, even with the broader trend of declining condo sales.”

High mortgage rates, along with rising insurance costs and HOA fees, are a deterrent to some potential condo buyers, she says, but “Dallas’ booming economy and influx of high-net-worth folks from places like California are keeping demand spicy.” Limited inventory in sought-after locations including Uptown and Highland Park is also helping to maintain a balanced market and “downsizing execs and retirees are craving that low-maintenance, amenity-packed lifestyle, which keeps luxury condos in the spotlight,” she adds.

Heading into 2026, “demand should stay strong, fueled by corporate relocations and Texas’ no-income-tax allure,” but she doesn’t expect the wild bidding wars of yesteryear. “Inventory is creeping up, which might cool price growth, but prime properties in high-demand areas will likely hold their value.” New developments in the city’s hot neighborhoods will add to supply, “but prime inventory, such as penthouses with killer views, will stay tight, keeping competition fierce,” she adds. “Expect a market that’s lively but not reckless.”

Although sales volumes for luxury condos on Seven Mile Beach, one of the most desirable locations in the Cayman Islands, have fallen by around 10% to 15% year over year, prices have risen by 10% to 15% in the same period, says Stefan Cohen, Managing Partner of The Agency Cayman Islands. Prices for some prime beachfront and redevelopment properties climbed 15% to 20%. Luxury condo prices in the islands have historically tended to average around US $2,500 per square foot, but “we are trending toward the $3,000 per square foot mark for the newer developments and condos on Seven Mile Beach, which is pretty groundbreaking for Cayman,” he says.

The slight cooling of the Cayman Islands real estate market overall in 2025 reflects its tendency to mimic patterns within the U.S. market, but “luxury real estate has held up well despite a softer overall market,” he says, with price growth reflecting “both the scarcity of quality inventory and the sustained demand for Cayman’s most prestigious addresses.”

Shortage of inventory is not the only factor that has lowered transaction rates in 2025, as revealed by a slight increase in days on market. For resale properties, setting realistic price expectations among sellers has been a challenge, with many clinging to pandemic-era values despite a shift in market conditions, he says. But the primary factor that’s led to a slowdown this year is political uncertainty, particularly changes of government in both the U.S. and the Cayman Islands. “Now that things are looking a lot more stable, we are seeing a lot more movement,” he says. High-net-worth buyers from Canada and the U.K. are showing particular interest in properties valued at US $2.4 million and up, the threshold for obtaining permanent residency in the islands, he adds. U.K. citizens have been additionally motivated to purchase in this British Overseas Territory by the recent abolition of tax exemptions for nondomiciled residents. The recent increase in transaction volumes is set to grow heading into 2026 as the market enters its busy season, which runs from the end of the year to the end of April.